Esme's Blog: The Marriage Amendment Math Problem

MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) -- The latest Public Policy Poll on the Minnesota Marriage Amendment finds that 49 percent surveyed oppose the Amendment and 46 percent support it.

That is within the poll's margin of error. Both sides agree the vote will be very close. But one survey that should be especially concerning to opponents is not a poll, but a study by New York University Professor Patrick Egan.

That study of more than 30 marriage amendment and ballot questions from around the country found that on average polls had underestimated the opposition to gay marriage by seven percent. The takeaway for political analysts is that in the past, a statistically significant number of people have, when polled, said they support gay marriage and then when they vote, vote against it.

But will that happen here? Obviously we won't know until after Election Day. It's clear though that Minnesota is the state that may break the 31-state winning streak of gay marriage opponents, and that is why the onslaught of ads on both sides will be with us through Nov. 6.