MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — A new poll out late last night suggests public opinion has shifted against the Marriage Amendment.

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Public Policy Polling found 45 percent of likely voters support defining marriage as between a man and a woman in the state constitution, while 52 percent are against the amendment.

A Star Tribune poll out just last week showed the contest is a dead heat.

But a study of 31 states says on the issue of gay marriage polling is not accurate.

The NYU study looked at polls in 31 states where gay marriage was on the ballot. The study found that the Vote Yes side, the side that opposes gay marriage under polls by 7 percent.

What does that mean? Well it appears that 7 percent of voters when asked by a pollster if they support gay marriage rights say yes, but when they actually go to the polls they vote against gay marriage.

By that standard you would have to take any poll done on the Minnesota Marriage Amendment and add 7 percent to the Vote Yes side. But the question is will that happen here.

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Representatives on both sides of the Marriage Amendment appeared on WCCO Sunday Morning.

Autumn Leva is the spokesperson for Minnesota For Marriage, the leading group fighting for passage of the Marriage Amendment.

“They are scared, they are nervous, they are much more quiet about it in the poll but when it comes down to it, when they actually go vote, they vote for traditional marriage every time,” she said.

But Kate Brickman, the spokesperson for Minnesota United for All Families, which has campaigned against the Marriage Amendment said it’s still a wait-and-see decision.

“At this point, we are going to have to see what happens on Election Day,” she said. “At this point, the election is really really close. We are doing whatever we can to get out the vote for those Minnesotans who do believe in freedom and fairness and then talk to the 3 or 4 percent of undecided voters who are left out there.”

There is another factor that is likely to skew polling in Minnesota. Under Minnesota law, anyone who goes to the polls and votes for, let’s say President, down to their local school board and then skips the Marriage Amendment will be counted as a no vote.

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You can watch WCCO Sunday Morning with Matt Brickman and Esme Murphy every Sunday Morning at 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Esme Murphy