Movie Blog: Your 2013 Oscar Pool Cheat Sheet

In Wait Until Dark, the villainous psycho played by Alan Arkin (who is nominated for best supporting actor this year for his irascible but chummy performance in Argo) jokes about two con men who thought they had the drop on him until, "Topsy-turvy. Me topsy, and them turvy."

Arkin's grim gag feels a lot like the wild ride Hollywood has taken during this year's Oscar season. For months, every other week seemed to bring a new frontrunner to the best picture discussion. And somehow, nearly all of them actually managed to somewhat live up to expectations. You would think that with the wealth of frontrunners -- many of which earned upwards of 7 nominations, many of which grossed more than $100 million domestically, many of which were prominently positioned on a number of critics' top ten lists -- any chink in one particular movie's armor would be enough to allow a bunch of other comers to steal its thunder.

But not when that movie is Argo, apparently. Flying in the face of 85 years' worth of Oscar precedent, Argo is set to take the top prize of the night without a nomination for director Ben Affleck and without having the benefit of being the most-nominated film (or second-most or even tied for third-most). Which just goes to show, the "poor little snubbed drop dead gorgeous matinee idol" narrative plays awfully well in La-La Land.

Not every category is up in the air, but I'd argue more of them are this year than is usual, starting right at the top and working down. It's a potential cluster, but here are my educated guesses as to what will emerge victorious this coming Sunday evening in a year ripe for Oscar asterisks, along with my own personal preferences.

		Best Picture
		Amour
		Argo
		Beasts of the Southern Wild
		Django Unchained
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Les Misérables
		Silver Linings Playbook
		Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Despite its aforementioned "strategic weaknesses," there's little doubt that Argo will walk away with this, especially since it all but swept the various guild awards. Any movie where Hollywood saves the day is probably going to curry favor with Hollywood. Go figure.
Should Win: Lincoln is my favorite movie in the lineup, and I'd certainly welcome its win. But given the politics surrounding the race this year, I have to throw a vote of support Zero Dark Thirty's way. Yes, it's a tricky, complicated, at times controversial piece of filmmaking. But it offers none of the easy answers Argo deals in spades. I will always side with movies that start heated debates over movies that are universally liked.

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		Best Actor
		Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
		Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
		Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
		Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
		Denzel Washington, Flight

Will Win: Speaking of universally liked, you won't find anyone who will argue against Daniel Day-Lewis winning his third Oscar for his iconic performance as Abraham Lincoln ...
Should Win: ... unless it's me. Day-Lewis is a wonder, but with a growing string of stunning performances (both in films and in real life), Joaquin Phoenix is overdue. His turpentine-swilling pitbull-in-training for a shadowy religious cult is among his very best efforts.

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		Best Actress
		Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
		Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
		Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
		Quevenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
		Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Will Win: Many see this as a competitive three-way contest between the first three listed alphabetically. Those that don't believe in the power of mogul Harvey Weinstein (who is backing Lawrence in this race). Having witness the last two Oscar contests break Weinstein's way (e.g. The King's Speech and The Artist), I'm a believer.
Should Win: Of course, it also helps that Lawrence gave the category's breeziest, most enjoyable performance, with all due respect to Emmanuelle Riva's magnificent display of crepuscular terror.

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		Best Supporting Actor
		Alan Arkin, Argo
		Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
		Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
		Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
		Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Will Win: Of all the acting categories, this is the truly wide-open race. Arkin, Hoffman and Waltz have all won within the last decade, so they're probably all going to take a back seat to the other two. De Niro has been campaigning hard, but Jones seems the logical bet.
Should Win: Jones was the Hamburglar to the U.S. House of Representatives' room full of all-beef patties. No contest.

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		Best Supporting Actress
		Amy Adams, The Master
		Sally Field, Lincoln
		Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
		Helen Hunt, The Sessions
		Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win: An Oscar frontrunner in motion stays in frontrunner motion unless met by an opposing force. No one seems even remotely willing to argue that Anne Hathaway doesn't deserve this one for dreaming a dream in one long, teary-eyed close up.
Should Win: Hathaway was fine, but Samantha Barks was that movie's true MVP. Among this slate (arguably one of the weakest this category's seen in a while), I'd opt for Helen Hunt's sex surrogate whose professionalism becomes a mask for her turbulent inner feelings.

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		Best Director
		Michael Haneke, Amour
		Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
		Ang Lee, Life of Pi
		Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
		David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win: Ben Affleck. Oh wait, the Academy doesn't allow for write-in votes. That leaves a true vacuum at the top of this category, but odds favor the two whose movies earned the most nominations. Given the seeming lack of general enthusiasm for Lincoln at the guild awards, I'm going to go with the wild card here and say Ang Lee gets it.
Should Win: It would be great to see the award go to the most severe in the bunch -- Amour -- but if anyone deserves to be earning a third Oscar this weekend, surely Spielberg does.

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		Best Original Screenplay
		Amour, Michael Haneke
		Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
		Flight, John Gatins
		Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
		Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

Will Win: Given the overall amour for Amour in the general categories, I'm saying Haneke holds off Quentin Tarantino in this category, which he'll earn as a sort of consolation prize in lieu of the his director bid.
Should Win: Some may argue the CIA had far too much input into the screenplay for it to count as "original," but there's no doubt that Zero Dark Thirty pulls off the category's deftest feat, compressing a decade's worth of information into a remarkably brisk-seeming 160 minutes.

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		Best Adapted Screenplay
		Argo, Chris Terrio
		Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
		Life of Pi, David Magee
		Lincoln, Tony Kushner
		Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Will Win: Since Argo isn't winning best picture without taking at least one or two other prizes, it's gotta win here. The copious (and, sorry, very cheap) Hollywood in-jokes will seal its victory here.
Should Win: I long ago made my peace with the fact that the Oscars are rarely going to be awarded to my favorite nominees. But seeing Tony Kushner's tight, intelligent and incredibly wry script for Lincoln lose to "If you think Khomeini is tough, you haven't dealt with the Writers Guild" will be a very bitter pill to swallow.

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		Best Foreign Film
		Amour (Austria)
		Kon-Tiki (Norway)
		No (Chile)
		A Royal Affair (Denmark)
		War WItch (Canada)

Will Win: The buzziest film doesn't always win here (remember Pan's Labyrinth?), but with a best picture nod to its credit, Amour seems like a can't-lose proposition.
Should Win: I'll be honest and say that I haven't seen enough of these nominees to make a judgment call. It could very well be Amour, though I have heard amazing things about No.

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		Best Documentary Feature
		5 Broken Cameras
		The Gatekeepers
		How to Survive a Plague
		The Invisible War
		Searching for Sugar Man

Will Win: How to Survive a Plague is the critics' choice, but since four of the nominees here are arguably heavy and political, voters will probably opt for the crowd-pleaser: the vaguely "Behind the Music"-ish Searching for Sugar Man.
Should Win: As with Zero Dark Thirty, 5 Broken Cameras (which deals with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) might be considered too cold and controversial for the win. But it's the toughest piece of filmmaking in the lot.

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		Best Animated Feature
		Brave
		Frankenweenie
		ParaNorman
		The Pirates! Band of Misfits
		Wreck-It Ralph

Will Win: Another tight race between everything but The Pirates! and maybe ParaNorman. Pixar (nominated this year for Brave) wins more often than not, but Wreck-It Ralph has the most blatant emotional core.
Should Win: Frankenweenie is the most unique, but Wreck-It Ralph won this child of the '80s over.

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		Best Cinematography
		Anna Karenina
		Django Unchained
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Skyfall

Will Win: Artily-deployed 3-D spectacle has become this category's go-to. Life of Pi will carry the trend.
Should Win: Skyfall's Roger Deakins is overdue, and his set piece in a night-shrouded skyscraper backlit by a massive LED jellyfish was an eye-popper.

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		Best Costume Design
		Anna Karenina
		Lincoln
		Mirror Mirror
		Les Misérables
		Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: If you ever, and I mean ever, bet against the frilly period costumes in this category, you may as well kiss your Oscar pool hopes goodbye. Karenina all the way.
Should Win: As my colleague said, Charlize Theron's Snow White gowns were "fierce."

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		Best Film Editing
		Argo
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Silver Linings Playbook
		Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo might lose screenplay, but there's no way it's going to lose this one, thanks to its showy crosscutting during the runway climax. It may end up being the only award it wins outside of best picture, which is cray-cray.
Should Win: Argo was edited by William Goldenberg, who is also nominated here for co-editing Zero Dark Thirty. I'd much prefer he win it for the far defter latter.

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		Best Production Design
		Anna Karenina
		The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Les Misérables

Will Win: Anna Karenina's imaginative, theatrical sets were the direct result of its funding falling through (sidelining plans to shoot on location), so its win here will seem extra sweet.
Should Win: Like Teddy Ruxpin, Life of Pi's got worlds of wonder.

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		Best Music -- Original Score
		Anna Karenina
		Argo
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Skyfall

Will Win: Lately, first-time nominees have been on a winning streak in this category, which puts Mychael Danna in a great position.
Should Win: Not a particularly distinguished lot, to my ears, but Alexandre Desplat's Argo adds one more winner to his ever-expanding body of impressive work.

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		Best Music -- Original Song
		"Before My Time," Chasing Ice
		"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Ted
		"Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi
		"Skyfall," Skyfall
		"Suddenly," Les Misérables

Will Win: After 23 films and nearly as many memorable theme songs, 007 will finally earn 001 win in this category, thanks to the fact that Adele cannot lose awards. It's been proven by science.
Should Win: "Skyfall" would be a deserving winner, but it's hardly among the Bond series all-time bests. Among these nominees, I prefer the appropriately slow-rolling dirge from Chasing Ice.

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		Best Makeup & Hairstyling
		Hitchcock
		The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
		Les Misérables

Will Win: There's a reason they added "hairstyling" to the title of this category this year, and it has something to do with that big ol' close up of Anne Hathaway's noggin.
Should Win: Silly Putty overload isn't always the best, but in the absence of the transformative work behind Day-Lewis's Lincoln, I'm opting for the flashiest nominee.

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		Best Sound Mixing
		Argo
		Life of Pi
		Lincoln
		Les Misérables
		Skyfall

Will Win: Just as you always have to vote corsets and feathers in costume design, you always have to give musicals the edge in sound mixing.
Should Win: Life of Pi's sound design was every bit as immersive and three-dimensional as its visuals.

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		Best Sound Editing
		Argo
		Django Unchained
		Life of Pi
		Skyfall
		Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Like I just said, Life of Pi's sound design was every bit as immersive and three-dimensional as its visuals.
Should Win: However, the aural atmosphere during the final siege of Usama Bin Laden's compound in the final half hour of Zero Dark Thirty was absolutely thrilling.

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		Best Visual Effects
		The Avengers
		The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
		Life of Pi
		Prometheus
		Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: A full slate of CGI animals, otherworldly seascapes and a shipwreck to rival Titanic's make Life of Pi a sure bet.
Should Win: Sorry, Marvel fanboys, Tolkien nerds and Ridley Scott apologists. Richard Parker bested you all.

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		Best Live-Action Short Film
		Asad
		Buzkashi Boys
		Curfew
		Death of a Shadow
		Henry

Will Win: Though some may find Curfew's hopeless hipster 'tude and rabid self-involvement a total turn off when held against the likes of, say, Buzkashi Boys, no other nominee here hits as many different emotional notes. Never mind that none of them cohere; it's the effort that counts.
Should Win: Death of a Shadow rises to the top of this mostly even playing field on the strength of its production design and its faint Chris Marker-ish undercurrents.

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		Best Animated Short Film
		Adam and Dog
		Fresh Guacamole
		Head Over Heels
		Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
		Paperman

Will Win: A few weeks ago, I was predicting Head Over Heels to take this one, but it feels like the tide has turned toward Paperman.
Should Win: Adam and Dog's character design is, ahem, a little floppy in spots, but it's got the most scope of any nominee here, and the shifting planes of motion are breathtaking. (Although Guacamole did have me reaching for the chips.)

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		Best Documentary Short
		Inocente
		Kings Point
		Mondays at Racine
		Open Heart
		Redemption

Will Win: In this category, efficacy always counts. I don't mean to be gauche when I say that Open Heart's terminally ill third world children are a sure bet.
Should Win: Open Heart is also undoubtedly the fullest and most heartwarming of the nominees, but I have to give some respect to the denizens of Kings Point for daring to suggest that love is truly for the young. Michael Haneke could scarcely come up with a more devastatingly pessimistic truth.

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• Academy Awards