Reality Check: The Power Of The Iowa Caucus
MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) -- The Iowa caucus is one week from Monday, along with the official kick-off to actual voting in the 2016 presidential election.
A small number of people in Iowa will once again have a big role in deciding who the next president will be.
The impact is large: Iowa has an outsized role in deciding who will be on the ballot.
But public opinion polling appears to reflect that the candidates emerging on the campaign trail don't represent most voters -- even in their own parties.
For example, Donald Trump supporters are more conservative than most Republicans. And Bernie Sanders is more liberal than the average Democratic voter.
In fact, only a small fraction of voters-- mostly on the party fringes-- decide who will even be on the ballot, according to WCCO-TV political analyst Larry Jacobs.
"I think most Americans will be very uncomfortable with what are facing come November," said Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics at the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs.
In 2012, first-in-the-nation Iowa had 191,000 caucus-goers out of more than 2 million voters.
Nationwide, 33 million people in caucus and primary states chose the nominees for the rest of America's 235,000,000 voters.
The people who turn out for caucus night -- on both sides -- are devoted party activists.
This year, 43 percent of Iowa Democrats planning to attend caucuses describe themselves as "socialist."
On the other side, 62 percent of Republican caucus-goers are "devoutly religious."
Jacobs says both views are outside the mainstream of Iowa -- and American-- voters.
"And often you get to October and November in a general election, and voters are frustrated," he said. "They feel like they are being presented with choices that don't really reflect their views. And they are right."
Here Are Some Of The Sources Used For This Reality Check:
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll Iowa Caucus Goers
Iowa Secretary of State Registered Voters
Iowa Caucus Final Results 2012
Iowa General Election Turnout 2012
National Primary and General Election Turnout Data
Larry Jacobs, "The 2016 Campaign: How "We The People" Came Back To Bite"
