Presidential Election: 4 Reasons The Pundits Were Wrong
MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) -- While losing the overall election, Hillary Clinton narrowly won Minnesota with just a 1.5 percent lead, carrying just nine counties of the 87 in the state.
This awarded her 10 electoral votes, but did not help her claim a victory.
A couple of weeks ago after the third presidential debate, Esme Murphy predicted on WCCO Mid-Morning that the election was over and Donald Trump lost the election.
The day after Donald Trump's stunning win there are signs of what the pundits missed. Now, Murphy gives four reasons why she thinks herself and the other pundits were wrong about the 2016 Presidential Election.
The Polls Were Wrong About Rural White Vote & Women
"The polls did not accurately gauge the rural white vote," Murphy said. "They just simply didn't. Whether or not it was the cell phone factor, they just didn't get it."
Polls missed what was clear at a packed Minneapolis rally Sunday, that there was a hidden Trump vote that included women and educated suburban voters.
"Secondly, the polls also got wrong, women. If you went to that rally Sunday that Trump held at the Twin Cities airport, half of the people in that audience were women," Murphy said. "The support was much greater for Trump amongst women than pollsters predicted. Women are 53 percent of the vote."
Hamline University Professor David Shultz said people may not have wanted to admit it to the polls.
"Trump polled better with a robot, or computer, as opposed to a live person, suggesting that people might have been more hesitant or embarrassed to say to a real breathing person that they were supporting Trump," he said.
Underestimating Obamacare Anger
"I do not think you can underestimate – especially in Minnesota, especially in rural areas – the anger at Obamacare and anger at rising premiums in the individual market," Murphy said. "Rural areas, you have farmers and small business people. They are getting hardest hit, and their relatives know that they're being hardest hit. It's an enormous factor."
Skyrocketing premiums were announced just weeks before voters went to the polls.
Gov. Mark Dayton's October statement that the affordable care act was no longer affordable became a Republican rally cry.
The Emails
The controversy over her use of a private email server never faded. In the final weeks there was a stream of embarrassing Wiki leaks revelations.
Then came the 11th hour Octobers surprise as the FBI announced they were investigating emails found on the laptop of Anthony Weiner, the husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin. Weiner is under investigation for allegedly sexting an underage teenage girl.
"These emails, the Wikileaks, the Anthony Weiner/FBI situation … I think people were horrified that Anthony Weiner had a whole bunch of these emails on his computer. The fact that James Comey later said 'Well, it really wasn't that much' … the damage was done. And the Wikileaks.. suggested an arrogant, detached person who really would do anything to win."
The FBI Director cleared Clinton two days before the election, but the damage was done.
"I think the American public had reached the point where they said enough with the Clintons," Shultz said.
Donald Trump
"When he came out, the charisma, rock star status … a Republican official said 'Have you ever seen anything like this in Minnesota?' and I said 'Yes, in 2008 at the Target Center when Barack Obama campaigned here. It was that kind of reception.'"
Trump alone saw and captured the frustration and anger of Americans left behind by a selective economic recovery. At a rally at the Twin Cities Airport Sunday Trump said, "We will stop the jobs from leaving Minnesota and we will stop them immediately."
Trump's blunt talk may have alienated many but it always came across as authentic and genuine. Two traits rarely used to describe Clinton
Perhaps Clinton supporters can draw bittersweet comfort from the fact that, like Al Gore in 2000, she lost the Electoral College vote but won the popular vote by, at the moment, 200,000 votes.
