MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — An updated model from the University of Minnesota and state’s health department is predicting that COVID-19 cases will peak in late-July with 25,000 deaths possible — if the stay-at-home order is extended until the end of May.

The model, which was updated on April 28, estimates outcomes for multiple scenarios. Scenario 5 was recently added to those estimates.

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In Scenario 5, the stay-at-home order is extended for all until the end of May. With that happening, the model predicts that the COVID-19 peak will happen on July 27, with the top intensive care units (ICU) demand being 4,000 and 25,000 possible deaths.

Another estimate, Scenario 4, predicts that if the stay-at-home order is extended by a month into mid-July, the peak would occur on July 13 with 3,700 as the top ICU demand and 22,000 possible deaths.

(credit: Minnesota Department Of Health/University of Minnesota)

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In previous briefings, Gov. Tim Walz has asked Minnesotans not to focus on specific numbers, but rather focus on when the peaks might occur.

“Modeling was never meant to provide a number,” Governor Walz said on Wednesday. “It was meant to show trend and direction, that if you social distance you buy more time.”

A third model is expected to be released later this week, MDH officials said Monday afternoon.

Related: What Does Minnesota’s COVID-19 Modeling Say? (April 10)

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As of now, Gov. Tim Walz’s stay-at-home order expires on May 18.