U Pollsters Eye Changes To Pre-Election Sampling
ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Two University of Minnesota professors recommend several steps with their future political polling to avoid a repeat of a poll in Minnesota governor’s race that came under criticism.
The final pre-election poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the university’s Humphrey Institute gave Democrat Mark Dayton a 12-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer. But Dayton ended up winning with under half of 1 percentage point.
Professors Lawrence Jacobs and Joanne Miller say in an internal review that the last pre-election poll should be taken closer to the election, include the results of other polls, ask participants questions that build a rapport before asking about candidate preference, weight better by geographic region and include cell phone users.
The review stresses that all political polls are a “snapshot in time” and not intended to predict the results of an election.