Reality Check: Will Trump's Lead In Polls Last?
MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) - New national election polls continue to show Donald Trump with a strong lead over his Republican rivals.
Trump captured the attention of Iowa State Fair-goers over the weekend with free helicopter rides for children.
And after more tough talk about illegal immigration, Trump leads his nearest rival -- Dr. Ben Carson -- 25 percent to 12 percent, according to a FOX News poll.
But polling success the year before the election does not translate into election victory.
Four years ago, Iowa buzzed with talk about the fresh new face in the GOP race: Former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.
Bachmann not only won the 2011 Iowa GOP Straw Poll, she drove her fellow Minnesotan, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, from the race a day later.
Bachmann fought it out all summer with the eventual Republican nominee Mitt Romney, leading the Iowa Poll in August: besting Romney, Cain, Paul and Gingrich.
Iowa Poll, August 2011
Bachmann, 27 percent
Romney, 22.3 percent
Cain, 7 percent
Paul, 5.3 percent
Gingrich, 4.5 percent
This year, Trump is a whole different elephant in the room. In the Iowa poll, his support stood at 19.3 percent, leading all Republican challengers, including Carson (11.7 percent), Scott Walker (11 percent), Carly Fiorina (8 percent) and Ted Cruz (8 percent).
But in fact, history shows that a summer surge in the polls doesn't guarantee a winner in the winter Iowa caucuses, or the presidential election in November.
In 2007, Democrat Hillary Clinton was ahead of Barack Obama in national polls at this time -- by a lot.
CBS News Poll, August 2011
Clinton, 45 percent
Obama, 25 percent
And the leading Republican nominee in August 2007 was Rudy Giuliani, or Fred Thompson, or John McCain.
USA Today Poll, August 2011
Giuliani, 33 percent
Thompson, 21 percent
McCain, 16 percent
Trump appears to have more popular support -- and money -- than previous leading candidates at this time in the cycle.
Prompting Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, to ask: What if?
"Having come from a state where Jesse Ventura got elected, and in a world where the Kardashians seem to be so popular for mysterious reasons, you never know," Pawlenty said. "You just never know."
Winning the Iowa caucuses doesn't give candidates a better chance of winning the White House.
Since 1980, excluding presidents who ran for re-election, The Iowa caucus selected the eventual next president in only three out of nine elections.
Here are some of the sources we used for this Reality Check:
Real Clear Politics, 2016 Election Polls
Iowa Poll, Romney, Bachmann in Lead
USA Today, Dems Favor Clinton Over Obama
CBS News, Lack of Experience Hurts Obama
C-SPAN, Newsmakers: Tim Pawlenty
FOX News Poll, Shakeup After First Debate and Sanders Gains On Clinton
Des Moines Register, Iowa Caucus Results
